Independent Insight on Pacific Strategy
Advancing Security, Policy, and Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

Mongolia’s Strategic Pivot: How Ulaanbaatar Is Navigating US Engagement Amid Great Power Competition

Mongolia-US Relations: Beyond Third Neighbor Strategy

The United States is intensifying engagement with Mongolia beyond traditional "Third Neighbor" frameworks, recognizing Ulaanbaatar's strategic significance amid great power competition. Ambassador Richard L. Buangan's diplomatic efforts reflect American interests in Mongolia's democratic governance, rare earth minerals, and geopolitical position—though deepening ties faces constraints from Mongolia's structural dependence on China and Russia.

Indonesia’s Energy Transition Dilemma: Balancing Coal Dependence Against Fiscal Sustainability

Indonesia Energy Transition: Coal, Affordability, and Climate Targets

Indonesia confronts an intractable energy policy contradiction: its coal-dependent system is unsustainable, but the transition to LNG and renewables exceeds what its fiscal budget can afford. Without substantial increases in international climate finance, Indonesia cannot simultaneously maintain energy affordability for 97 million poor citizens, retire coal infrastructure, and meet Paris Agreement targets.

Indonesia’s Persistent Trade Deficit Under ACFTA: Reassessing 16 Years of China Economic Integration

Indonesia ACFTA Trade Deficit: 16-Year Analysis

Sixteen years after implementation, Indonesia's trade deficit with China has widened dramatically under ACFTA, revealing structural asymmetries in the agreement that have favoured Chinese manufacturers while constraining Indonesian industrial development. This pattern has reshaped Jakarta's approach to trade negotiations and regional economic strategy.